This would be the thread of an explanation to be used if giving sponsors some comfort. But with the resources of Ferrari and McLaren, it is not the real story. Two groups at McLaren take turns to design the car biennially, so they have been working on this year’s car probably longer than the Brawn boys.
Adrian Newey, Red Bull’s technical director, says that now he is in a relatively smaller team he likes a wholesale change of technical rules. This allows smaller, more tightly focused groups to find the right solution faster because they are used to having to use their resources more economically. They have to get it right first time because they have neither the manpower nor the budget for major redesigns. Long-term stability of the rules virtually guarantees that the richest teams will be fastest. Although the overall lap time difference between the front and the back of the grid closes up as the small teams can copy and generally catch up, the big boys stay out front. It is the law of diminishing returns.
If there is potentially a fraction of a second of reduced lap time to be found by trying three different concepts for a given area of performance on the car, the better funded teams will have a group of people on all three options.
Teams are still grappling with the complexities of the latest changes. I asked Ross Brawn if I could see one of his diffusers. He said: “Yes, but not yet because other teams are still not asking the right questions, making me think they don’t fully understand how our car works.”
The key factor, though, is Kers, the new-for-2009 kinetic energy recovery system. The top teams all rushed out their cars early to develop their new Kers. I suspect they spent so much time on that, they missed the bigger picture. They focused on something that has yet to show a clear and consistent performance advantage. Smaller teams, who were unable initially to afford or cope with the complex installation of the 35kg Kers, just ignored it. Instead they worked on the basics, such as efficient aerodynamics, and this has proved fruitful. Their limited test laps were used to hone traditional areas of performance.
Neither Brawn nor Red Bull have run Kers and the only major “factory team” not to devote much time to it –Toyota – is, lo and behold, one of the teams to spot the double diffuser opportunity. And they lock out the front row for today’s race.
The diffuser trick, as conceived by Brawn, Toyota and Williams and now being copied by the others, only became an important advantage when the regulations were changed. To an extent, a variation of the concept has been used for some time. It has become the must-have fashion and performance accessory because the critical floor “kickup” point underneath the car has been moved 33cm rearwards, to be in line with the centre of the rear wheels.
The double diffuser effectively collects air upstream, which negates much of that 33cm change and also helps to make the rear wing more effective.
Massa won the 2008 Brazilian Grand Prix in supreme style just six months ago. He has not forgotten how to do that and neither have Raikkonen or Lewis Hamilton, the former and reigning world champions. To see them now floundering around in the middle of the pack and falling off the road in frustration seems inconceivable.
In China, Force India, a team with 20% of Ferrari’s budget, were running well ahead of it. Ferrari are suggesting they may even write this season off and concentrate on 2010, but they cannot be serious. They have to TOYOTA V FERRARI: A TALE OF TWO TEAMS This was the first time that Toyota have had two drivers at the front of the grid. Jarno Trulli and Timo Glock are fast improving and could make a real impact.
The prospects for Ferrari are not so good. Their terrible start to 2009 prompted a headline in La Repubblica of ‘Ferrari Disaster, the blackest crisis’, and quoted Felipe Massa: ‘Not even the petrol we have is a consolation’ keep development coming. Success is about attention to detail, a winning mindset, and the complex chemistry of team members. Maybe what we are seeing at Ferrari is the flywheel effect. After years of incredible success, Ross Brawn, Michael Schumacher and Jean Todt left, but initially the performance flywheel takes time to slow down and results continue. Then it becomes very hard to speed up that flywheel again.
I hope Stefano Domenicali, the young Ferrari team boss, can survive, because he is just the kind of person Formula One needs in its next life after the current regime.
All expectations of victory rest with Toyota, Brawn and Red Bull today. We can only expect the better-funded teams to come steaming through as the year unfolds.
The tide is surely turning, with both Ferraris and McLarens in the top 11 here on the grid.
Questions Of Sport, p23
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