I love these back to back Grand Prix meetings. All of the stories, drama and excitement seems to spill over from one race weekend to another perfectly. Coming into The Malaysian Grand Prix, there are a lot of questions which will need to be answered: Was Button's win Down Under a relative fluke, or can he do it again? Can Hamilton redeem himself? Will Vettel's car make it to the finish without breaking down again? Will the Ferrari's be able to be fuel efficient enough to complete? Will Renault, or any other team at that, crash the podium again? Oh, it is exciting... and you can follow all the excitement over at my website, www.TheBlackStuff.co.uk.
First things first though, before we get onto Friday's picks lets have a look back at how my tips for the Australian Grand Prix did. Well.... in my defence, it rained. It never rains in Australia, ever. That shook things up a bit, that did. Still, lets see how I did.
Won
Race Winner – All Other Drivers @ 19/20
How Many Lotus Cars Will Finish – 1 @ 23/20
Race Classification - Any Other Classification @ Evens
Lost
Race Winner – Mark Webber, Red Bull Racing @ 4/1
Race Winner – Lewis Hamilton, McLaren @ 30/1
How Many German Drivers will score points – 4 @ 2/1
Will Lewis Hamilton Score Points? No @ 14/5
Fastest Lap – Sebastian Vettel @ 2/1
In my defence, again, it rained. When the wet stuff starts pouring from the sky, all bets are off. Plus, Vettel once more had reliability issues and Webber and Hamilton decided it would be a good idea to spend all afternoon crashing into each other. That threw a major spanner into the works for my picks. However, I will do better with this week's offerings...
First things first, Bwin really have not reacted to Ferrari and Red Bull's poor showing in practice. Both teams have struggled for various reasons, and yet their odds have not been altered to reflect this. Therefore, we have a bumper Friday edition of F1 Picks.
Qualifying Winner – Lewis Hamilton, McLaren @ 9/2
To be honest, although my heart still says Sebastian Vettel and his ultra quick Red Bull car could easily take pole, his odds of 11/10 aren't that attractive considering he has spent all weekend breaking down. Hamilton, on the other hand, has topped both Friday practice sessions and is looking to bounce back from a torrid race weekend in Australia. I like the young Brit here.
Which Team Will Win Qualifying – All Other Teams @ 53/20
A good hedging bet. This bet stipulates that either a Ferrari or Red Bull will NOT be on pole position at the end of qualifying. Although it is a bit of a risky bet, form in practice shows that it isn't a completely silly one. Both the Ferrari cars have been struggling with down force issues and looked slow, while the Red Bull's haven't had their usual pace and have also been struck with technical gremlins. It is really easy to see a McLaren or even a Mercedes snatching pole in Malaysia.
Which Car Will Win The Race – Either McLaren @ 12/5 or All Other Cars @ 21/10
I can't decide which of these bets I like more, so I'll throw them both in. I cannot stress this enough – Ferrari and Red Bull both have issues in Malaysia's heat. The Ferrari team are struggling with down force and tyre issues while the Red Bull cars are overheating like there is no tomorrow. The McLarens look quick and Hamilton has topped both of Friday's practice sessions, hence their inclusion here, while the 'All Other Cars' bet just stipulates that neither a struggling Ferrari or Red Bull will win the race.
Qualifying Head to Head – Rubens Barrichello vs Nico Hulkenberg – Hulkenberg @ 23/10
I love the name Hulkenberg... isn't it awesome? Anyway, Nico Hulkenberg has finished ahead of his team mate Barrichello on the time sheets on both of the Friday practice sessions. With that form and odds of 23/10, it has to be worth a flutter.
Qualifying Head to Head – Lewis Hamilton vs Sebastian Vettel – Hamilton @ 47/20
Again, this is a case of Lewis being on form so far in Malaysia while Vettel and his Red Bull car has been prone to over heating and mechanical failures. If you think, as I do, that Lewis can carry his good form on from Practice and into Qualifying, get on this bet.
How Many Red Bull Cars Will Finish The Race – 0 @ 14/1
This is one of those silly, throw away bets that you should never expect to win. I say that... BUT, consider this. Sebastian Vettel has lost race wins at both of this year's races already due to mechanical issues. So far in the heat of Malaysia, between him and Webber there have been a few cases of the engine running so hot it has burnt off the stickers on the outside of the car, one gearbox\engine blow up, one case of an engine seizing up under braking, one braking issue and one case of power steering going wrong. With a list of issues that long, 14/1 looks like a decent bet for a long shot.
Quali Classification – Any Other Quali Classification @ 6/1
I love these bets. This betting group assumes that some combination of Alonso, Hamilton, Vettel, Webber and Massa will make up the top 2 positions in qualifying. Well sorry, I don't see those 5 being the drivers which duke it out. I can see a Mercedes or Renault getting up there before a Ferrari does, and both Red Bull cars have had serious mechanical issues already this weekend. I like this bet a lot.
That is it for now. I think those are enough bets. Sorry to put so many on your plate, but I just cannot get over how little the bookies have reacted to Ferrari and Red Bull's awful times in Friday Practice. I would have seriously shortened some of those odds. Anyway, I'll be back tomorrow with race picks once the grid is set. In the meantime, feel free to drop by www.TheBlackStuff.co.uk any time you like. I promise we don't bite.
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