Confirmed seats in Formula One's 2010 season are almost as rare as fully committed sponsors.
But with more teams, perhaps as many as 14 if BMW's new owners make it to the grid, there are plenty of seats - and even more permutations to go around.
If we had the say, who would we put where?
Brawn GP
Button, obviously. If only because we like to see English drivers in English teams. But also because he is so core to the development of the team and the car (as is Barrichello) that to lose both him and Rubino would be catestrophic in terms of driver feedback.
And actually, we'd quite like to see Barrichello stay but one has to recognise that his sterling efforts this year saw him bested by his team mate. But even Ross Brawn does not expect to have such a stellar season next year. He has said that the team does not have the resources it started 2009 with. That was 700 people and a "grant" from Honda said to have been as much as GBP100 million, plus eight months development on the car under Honda. It was a giant lick start. Next year is likely to start with a giant kick in the tender bits as reality sets in. So Rubino knows, he's got maybe two seasons left, both physically and emotionally and good as he is, he's not going to get his elusive championship with Brawn.
So in the absence of Rubino, we suggest Sutil. He's spectacularly quick when the set up is right. And he'll satisfy Mercedes desire for a German driver. He's hustled a Mercedes-engined Force India around in remarkable fashion for the past two years. He deserves a step up, and he's German which would please the engine supplier who, rumour has it, are not best pleased with McLaren at the moment after two reputation-battering years and terrible results in the early part of this year.
McLaren
Hamilton. He is now so central to McLaren that his departure would rip the heart out of the team. But that's only going to last so long (his contract expires 2012) and in the early part of the year his lack of maturity showed up; and his omnipresent father in the garage is now beginning to be looked at as getting between driver and team. It's not just his father: although most drivers have wives, girlfriends and other family members in attendance, they tend to stay in the back of the garage, slightly distant from the team. Hamilton's family is always up-front, chased down by the media, particularly in the case of his girlfriend. This is all a distraction, especially when there are problems. And it might be easier, in later years, to cut Hamilton loose than to go through the PR nightmare of telling him to keep the home-team out of the way.
Hamilton is such a great driver that team-mates all suffer by comparison. The challenge for McLaren is to find someone who can keep up. And, as the last qualifying session of 2009 showed, there are not a lot of people who can even come close when he's on form and his car is working.
But it's also got to be someone who will not play mindgames with Hamilton: for that is his weakness.
Our suggestion: Vettel would have been ideal, but he's confirmed at Red Bull. He's fast, talks to the team and he doesn't play silly games. He'd push Hamilton all the way.
In the absence of him, we'd suggest Liuzzi. He's demonstrated spectacular ability after stepping into the team to replace the outgoing Fisichella.
Red Bull
Webber and Vettel are both confirmed.
Webber: being oldest doesn't guarantee a team-leader's number, even if he was one of the first drivers to confirm his 2010 seat. That comes from results. And Webber needs a kick in the pants to make him consistently as good as he can be. Being number two should be enough to make him think "if I don't deliver now, I'm out next year." And he'll find it hard to get another drive if that happens. After all, that's kind of what happened to Coulthard who ended up driving for a small salary and points money. Webber signed himself to his new contract after his long-time manager Briatore was booted out of F1. It's unlikely the FIA will decide to intervene in that contract even though it was signed very soon after the sentence was imposed by the FIA.
Red Bull stand a decent chance of being in the top three teams next year (the other two most likely are Ferrari and McLaren). They have gelled towards the end of this season: it would be a shame to throw that away but a shake-up is needed.
Ferrari
Massa is back. As one of the few confirmed seats for 2010, this one isn't worth considering. Another confirmed seat is Alonso. Who will be wearing the leader's number remains to be seen.
But for sure, Ferrari are going to be starting a lot further down the pit lane than they are used to. But with no KERS and less complicated electronics, plus a development head-start they should hit the ground running in 2010. The only fly in the ointment for them is the perceived favouritism they will gain as a result of Jean Todt's appointment to head the FIA. We hope it's not true, but we see trouble ahead.
Toyota.
Trulli is hopeless as many times as he is brilliant. Where he gets the pace from, when it suits him, is a mystery. But he's always been the same. On a good day, he's champion material; on a bad day you wouldn't trust him with a shopping trolley at Tesco. He's really got to go.
Glock, on the other hand, although trailing Trulli in the championship, is steady performer. His off-days are not as off as Trulli's. Glock should stay.
And he should be paired with the firebrand Japanese that sat in for him after his big crash. Kamui Kobayashi is more Samurai than kamikazi (a rare thing in Japanese drivers when they first arrive in Formula One). He takes no prisoners, is not over-whelmed or overawed by the great names around him. In his first race, he had to cope with three world champions and the man who, at the end of that race, would be king and he was totally unfazed. And he was fast.
Toyota have agreed to supply engines for next year so it's highly unlikely they are pulling out of F1 as has often been rumoured, although the team has not confirmed its plans. They've made a number of serious strategic decisions in their years in F1 but this year they seem to have started to run a racing team instead of a division of a car manufacturer. That has started to pay off and they should be in the top six teams at the end of 2010 if they don't stuff it up again.
Sauber + ?
BMW didn't sign the Concord Agreement so they don't have a confirmed place on the grid. BMW has said that it has sold its team to an un-named group of middle eastern businessmen, mainly from one family. Pretty obviously, it's not the big-wigs from Abu Dhabi: they've spent an extraordinary amount of money on a variety of Ferrari tie-ups. But whoever it is, they'll need deep pockets to keep the Sauber team running. Apparently, their pockets are as deep as their oil wells, so that's promising.
But there are doubts that they will get the team together - and Williams isn't being helpful in securing the 14th place on the grid for them. Williams has said that it will not support a 14th team because there will not ben enough revenue to share and, worse, several circuits may not be able to accommodate 14 F1 teams and all the paraphenalia they bring. For sure, the pits and paddocks I know would almost all find it difficult. And that doesn't take into account the logistics and security, plus the next basic question: how will 28 cars actually fit onto a grid, and how many of them will be around a corner somewhere so they can't see the lights go out?
Ferrari agree - but they would support the old BMW team staying in, but not another new entrant.
Right now, both of their drivers are looking for other berths. Kubica is becoming irritating: he's such a whiner. When he's quick, he's very quick but his early promise really has not been realised, and it's not all due to the car. But he's solved our problem of finding somewhere for him by signing for Renault over the weekend.
Heidfeld was reckoned to be Button's equal when they came into F1. We never saw it, and still don't. He's always going to be amongst the best of the rest. A good number two in the right team.
But it's by no means certain that the team will make it to the grid: the same people are involved with an English soccer club that is, according to Autosport.com under investigation by the Football Association. Moreover, they had appointed Russell King who failed to bring about a Dubai F1 team several years ago and who is currently subject to an court order freezing his assets, says Martin Whitmarsh of McLaren.
Sauber have no engine deal (or at least haven't announced one yet) so no tie-up there as yet.We'd give them Buemi as team leader and leave Heidfeld as number two.
Renault.
They've signed Kubica: it's probably the only Pole they'll get next year. They might like to consider asking Ferrari if they can borrow Luca Badoer. He's a very fine racing driver who has been overlooked due to his reserve driver status at Ferrari. But that job's going to Fisichella. Badoer stands next to no chance of a Ferrari drive now and Renault could do with someone who can work on the new car.
Torro Rosso.
Barichello and Nakajima. For Rubino, there aren't many teams to go to: McLaren and Ferrari are pretty much sorted, as is Red Bull. Williams and Renault don't seem to stand a lot of chance next year and BMW will have gone, at least in their present guise. The problem with being the second best driver in the best car is that there are remarkably few options to move. Torro Rosso stands a chance: and he'll get to work with Ferrari people so he'll settle in quickly, and it's based in Italy so he's not problems with language or culture. It's probably the best fit but it won't give him the Championship he craves.
Nakajima needs to be taken out of his comfort zone: an Italian team will do that. And he's going to have to fight for his place anyway. This would be just the kick he needs.
Williams.
It might seem harsh to take both their drivers away but Williams needs to jet-wash its operations. The engineering's not been up to snuff, and the driving's been patchy. In any case, Rosberg has said he is leaving Williams. But he has not said where he's going. Rumours are that he might go to Brawn, mainly because he's German.
Word is that GP2 ace Nico Hulkenberg will step up to a Williams seat. That would be a mistake. He and Grosjean sparkled in GP2, but they are not Formula One material just yet. The step between the two, with no testing allowed, is just too great, even though Hulkenberg has been Williams nominated third driver this year.
We'd give them Kovalainen. Although Williams is a bit of an emotional pressure-cooker of a team, and Kovalainen is highly reserved, we think the tensions would work out well. Kovalainen is a steady driver who feeds back well. And we'd back him up with a wild-card: Sebastien Bourdais. Bourdais is a superb and extremely successful driver who just couldn't get his head around the Torro Rosso outfit. He would prove an excellent rear-gunner to Kovalainen and a valuable addition to the Williams garage.
Force India
Karan Chandok. If there is one GP2 driver who stands a chance on stepping up, it's him. Although he's had a few crashes towards the end of the season, he is the thinking-man's racing driver. He is an ardent student of F1, and a committed observer. His attention to detail is incredible. He's the ideal candidate to provide the best testing feedback to the team, to maximise their promise.
They have done amazingly well for part of 2009: Chandok, who has the added advantage of being Indian, should help them consolidate that in the early part of 2010 when the bigger budget teams are streaking away due to the work done at the end of this year. They will be at the back of the second group anyway so they might as well invest in Chandok as a future front runner while they won't compromise their results.
His team leader? Rubino, except he won't go because there's no chance of a championship with them. Which is why we suggested he would be better off at Torro Rosso. But the team needs an old head: the ideal one would be Trulli. Yes, we know what we said about him but Force India needs someone with huge experience not necessarily to race at the front, but to aid in the development of the car in the early part of the season when they will need to swap experience for budget.
So, that brings us to the new teams. And interestingly, we've used up all the current drivers, with a couple of notable exceptions.
The first thing that the new teams have is budget issues. When even BrawnGP is selling prime sponsorship on its cars at a level that doesn't cover the cost of a race weekend, the new teams are not going to find fund-raising easy. So they can't afford big names.
And they can dream but a BrawnGP scenario of a championship in their first season just isn't going to happen for any of them.
Campos
This team has announced that they have signed Bruno Senna. OK, so it brings in headlines and headlines means sponsorship but the fact is that he may be Ayrton's nephew but for sure he's not his successor. A middling season in GP2 does not bode well given that he's not allowed to test the new car for more than a few days as set by the FIA.
Who would we put with him? Actually, we'd ask David Coulthard if he fancied getting back in the car. Next year's cars will be much more like the cars he started F1 in: much reduced electronics, less downforce and slick tyres - and no KERS. He's not far from race-fit and he knows the tracks. And he would prove a great mentor for Senna.
Manor Grand Prix
They have the Virgin sponsorship for 2010, but as it was worth a (reported) measly GBP150,000 a race to Brawn, and seemingly Branson the man not Virgin the brand got more TV coverage out of that deal, the value of it as a major sponsor will be open to question. Branson is not a man to throw his money away, as we reported when the Brawn deal was first announced. It's highly unlikely that the Virgin money will be enough to sustain an F1 team. Rumour has it that Virgin has taken a 20% equity stake in the team: that's not sponsorship as such but in any case it's a risk-limited amount. If the team goes belly up, Virgin's liabilities are known - and potentially written off - on day one.
Their website has a horrible graphic, a generic black car and nothing else. Frankly, we don't hold out much hope of them making it to the first race. If they do, we'd give them Roman Grosjean, who is a lot better driver than his days as Piquet's replacement at Renault have made out - and another spare-part at Ferrari, Marc Gene.
Team USF1.
There's been some fuss over the team name but it seems to have been settled now. Apparently Bernie didn't want F1 in the name, or something.
Anyway: they are American and they plan to have a European base in Spain. Why? Probably because Spanish (of sorts) is the USA's second language.
Their US factory seems to be remarkably well funded considering they have not announced whose stickers will be on the cars. One hopes they won't become the team whose burn rate takes them out of the game faster than their cars go. With their apparent budget, we'd give them - wait for this - Raikkonen. He's demonstrated that he can wring performance out of a difficult car, and do it quicker than anyone else. This year's Ferrari is rubbish: but Raikkonen has still managed to turn in decent results - after the first seven races where even he couldn't make the thing go. And we'd back him up with an American driver - except there aren't any worth picking. In US single seat racing, all the fast drivers are from somewhere else: England, Scotland, Australia, New Zealand and various South American countries. The obvious choice would be to try to get Montoya out of NASCAR where he enjoys the racing but not success. But otherwise, we'd be tempted to get them to bring Dan Weldon over.
Lotus.
This is almost easy. The team stands no chance of running at the front in its first year. So it needs to be a training ground for the whole team, despite the fact that some long-standing F1 characters have joined the team in various senior roles. Malaysia has some very good drivers - but in single seaters, now that Alex Yoong has shot his bolt and retired to tin-tops, there is only one worth considering: Fairus Fauzi. Fairus is a natural driver, he knows when to take risks and when to hold back. He wins races with his brain as much as with his right foot. True, Yoong is probably a better technical driver, but Fairus is a better racer. He's fearless but not cavallier, fast in the right places and reads the conditions around him superbly. He's not ready for F1, but there is a political (small p) demand to have a Malaysian in the Lotus team which is owned by Malaysian commercial interests and will, in due course, move some of its operations to Malaysia.
So who should partner him? Without doubt, it should be Anthony Davidson. In karting circles, he was always reckoned to be better than either Hamilton or Button had been. He's a lost talent who proved his worth at Super Aguri since when he's been sidelined. He's English so that goes well with the incredible following that Lotus has in the UK.
Put these two together to grow with the team and, if the management doesn't stuff it up, they will be in the top ten in 2011 and fighting for a podium in 2012.
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