When the 2009 Formula One season began, Jenson Button said that winning the British Grand Prix was his focus for the season.
So far, he's won six of seven races and is a lock for the title. That doesn't diminish his desire to win on Sunday and every driver in the pit lane knows it. This is their chance to beat Button where it counts — on his home turf.
Silverstone is a classic track, an original F1 stop with past winners including Alberto Ascari, Juan Fangio, Ayrton Senna and Michael Schumacher. To have your name added to this exclusive list is an impressive accomplishment.
To win here requires a great car and a brave driver. It's a high-speed track with the driver full on the throttle for two thirds of the lap. A combination of low and high speed corners, including a 220-kilometre-per-hour sweeper makes this tough on engines, tires and drivers. Passing is difficult, so grid position is important. The team with the best car and best strategy should emerge the winner, unlike a track like Monaco where there is always a few surprises up front.
A win at Silverstone for a team owned by a Brit with a British driver and sponsor would really be the cherry on top of their dominant season. Jenson Button wants to win in front of the home crowd just as Jim Clark, Jackie Stewart, Nigel Mansell and David Coulthard have done before him.
For every other team it is also a chance to spoil Brawn GP's dream season. Drivers are now fighting for next season's contract and teams are fighting for a sponsor from an ever-decreasing list, so a breakthrough at Silverstone is of utmost importance.
With all of this in mind, here is a look at how the teams will do at Silverstone on Sunday:
McLaren: If the results in Turkey are indicative of what might happen this weekend do not put your money on last year's world champions. McLaren has historically built either great cars or dogs. I think this year is the latter. Lewis Hamilton will get some great fan support but he will be hard pressed to finish in the top 10. His teammate Heikki Kovalainen is without a contract for next season, look for him to do everything possible to beat Lewis Hamilton and prove he deserves to stay.
Ferrari: They turned their season around in Monaco running with Brawn GP and Red Bull up front. While they looked good in Turkey with sixth- and ninth-place results, I'm not certain that Silverstone will be as good to them. While the car looks great on tight, slow circuits, the high-speed track here will challenge the good, not great chassis. Their biggest problem has been race strategy, which is pivotal at Silverstone. Look for some more points with a top-eight finish.
BMW: It's surprising that we are celebrating Robert Kubica's first points of the season after six races. Hopes were so high, yet the team has floundered. The new aerodynamics package helped in Turkey, but the team still only gathered two points. Much will depend on whether this chassis will like the tires this weekend and how they manage strategy. Robert Kubica loves fast tracks and is a talented driver, but I think the car is average. I would suggest more points for BMW with a solid sixth place.
Renault: A 10th place in the last race shows how slow the Renault chassis is. In spite of the rumours of the team being sold and the main sponsor leaving, Alonso has done his best with a poor chassis. Renault power is solid, but the car is a handful. That's not great news heading into a fast track with fast corners. The team seems more about qualifying than the race itself so watch for Alonso to qualify in the top six and finish no higher then 11th.
Toyota: Finally some good news from Toyota. Not only did the team finish fourth in Turkey with a competitive car, they announced they will return in 2010. All their aero updates seem to be working. I believe they see opportunities for a victory this season as many teams are already working on next year's car. I don't think Silverstone will be the site of their first victory, but a spot on the podium is within reach. Look for a top five, with some luck a third place is possible.
Toro Rosso: Not a memorable season for Red Bull's sister team. Blessed with a great chassis and Ferrari power, they should be fighting for points instead of fighting with Force India for basement status. The car is not very good at high speed, which will likely mean another disastrous weekend. I think Sebastien Bourdais and Sebastien Buemi are worried these may be their final races in F1 and every member of the team must be wondering about their future. The series is adding three new teams next season, and Red Bull doesn't really need to support two teams. I hope the best, but expect the worst as they will not make the top 15.
Red Bull: If this is indeed a two-team race for the championship then Red Bull is the other team. I doubt it will unseat Jenson Button from his commanding lead, nevertheless, Red Bull has been fantastic. There are a lot of factors at week this weekend. Red Bull's chassis has been strong, but they likely give up some performance to Brawn GP's Mercedes engine. Red Bull is powered by Toyota and that means better mileage, which should help Red Bull go longer between stops. I would give Red Bull the edge here, but with Ross Brawn calling strategy for Brawn GP it will be tough to beat Jenson. Give Red Bull a second-place result, and perhaps a third as well.
Williams: Another happy story from Turkey. Nico Rosberg found his way back to the front of the pack. The best qualifier in Formula 1 finally put a full race together. The team has always been fast, but strategy has been the issue. They seem ready to give up a top qualifying position in order to have a better car at the start of the race. Nico Rosberg is maturing and the team is finding its way which is good news for Formula 1 fans. Silverstone will be good for Williams, expect to see Nico in the battle for fourth or fifth.
Brawn GP: In a season full of big races for this new team, this is the biggest so far. Jenson Button will be the centre of attention all weekend. Brawn GP has the best car, the best team, the best driver and the best chance to win in Britain. Button seems to thrive on pressure and I expect nothing short of another dominant performance. He knows this is the season of a lifetime and will take full advantage of everything this team provides him. Look for a sea of Union Jacks flying on Sunday.
Force India: A high-speed track should really show the difference between the best and the others. Force India is one of the others. It will struggle to keep up with everyone, except maybe Toro Rosso. They may however provide the most entertaining in-car footage for the broadcast, as I imagine the chassis will be a real handful at 290 km/h.
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