No such thing as 'instant classic'

Fairbairn is vice-chairperson of Blenheim-based RM Auctions, one of the world's biggest purveyors of collectible automobiles, with more than $320 million US in sales last year.

RM, which also runs the world's largest classic car restoration shop, made headlines last month when a 1957 Ferrari 250 Testa Rossa sold for a record $12.4 million US at its auction at Ferrari headquarters in Maranello, Italy.

Packard, DeSoto, Studebaker, Rambler, American Motors, Oldsmobile, Plymouth. The list of defunct carmakers is long.

And every time one succumbs, somebody thinks it's time to sock away a mint example as a nest egg.

"If you go back to the last year or two of any marque that's no longer made today, you can easily find examples with low or no miles that people put away believing that," says Fairbairn. "In general, it's not true."

You'd make more leaving it in a bank, says Fairbairn.

"Over the course of history, I think I can safely say there has never been a new car that made sense to buy new and hold until it became valuable."

There's no such thing as an instant classic. It can take a generation or more to discover if a car will be desirable.

"The thing that kicks off the collectibility of a car or an era is almost always the nostalgic motivation," says Fairbairn.

"You can set your watch by it. Look at 15-, 16- or 17-year-old boys' posters hanging on the walls of their rooms and now fast-forward until that 15-year-old boy is 50."

Twenty years ago, the generation that came of age after the Second World War helped fuel interest in the finned and chromed land yachts of the 1950s.

In the last few years, aging Baby Boomers have driven some 1960s Detroit muscle cars deeply into six-figure auction prices.

So the cars to be looking at now, says Fairbairn, are those of the early 1970s. It's the tail end of the muscle-car era, before primitive emission-control systems strangled their engines. Models such as the 1971 Corvette LT1 and Pontiac Trans-Am Super Duty are attractive.

And for foreign-car buffs, the Datsun 240Z sports coupe is coming into its own. They were numerous, but rust claimed a lot of them, so a mint-condition example should be a good investment, says Fairbairn.

After that, pickings are slim.

"The mid-'70s to the mid-'80s are kind of a wasteland, other than the exotics like Ferraris. But even those didn't make much power at that point."

"The cornerstone of value in a collector car is three things: rarity, desirability and condition," says Fairbairn. "All three must be present."

For example, Chevrolet has survived GM's downsizing. But the 500-horsepower Chevrolet Corvette Z06 will be collectible whether GM goes completely belly-up or not.

"It's extremely desirable," says Fairbairn.

"It's a rocket ship; it looks great and all those kinds of things. It's rare by today's standards because they built it in the hundreds or low thousands."

That's not to say there aren't potential gems among the casualties.

For instance the Pontiac GTO, a revival of the storied model that began the muscle-car era in 1964, was offered from 2004 to 2006, but was a sales flop.

The 400-horsepower coupe was actually built by Holden, GM's Australian subsidiary. It meets some of Fairbairn's criteria, though critics labelled the styling bland.

A low-mileage example will still cost more than $30,000. Better to wait 10 or 15 years until they depreciate to $4,000 or $5,000. Then look for a clean, low-mileage example and be prepared to pay, say, $8,000.

"You'll be paying less than it's worth today and buying it 15 years closer to when it becomes collectible," says Fairbairn.


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