Turkish Grand Prix Betting: Ferrari and Red Bull can fight back

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Turkish Grand Prix Betting: Ferrari and Red Bull can fight back

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David Croft doesn't believe that Brawn's domination is making Formula 1 any less interesting - after all, it's up to Ferrari and Red Bull to make races more competitive, starting in Istanbul on Sunday.

"This should be the race that Red Bull, and possibly Ferrari too, start to fight back. That’s the challenge for the chasing pack, should they choose to accept it."

So is the title race over and has Formula 1 become a little boring with Brawn GP's domination this season? No and no, according to Ross Brawn when I spoke to him this morning, as he insisted that whether or not his team's success has made the sport a little dull isn't his fault.

I think Ross had been expecting that line of questioning from the F1 media this weekend anyway. Jenson Button too was very much at ease defending his teams domination, but then again Jenson has been very much at ease at every race so far this year.

For the record I don't share the view that Jenson's 16 point lead in the Drivers' Championship and Brawn's 43.5 point advantage in the constructors standings has made the sport any less interesting this season and I certainly don't share the view that we can expect team and driver to romp to an easy win this weekend.

This should be the race that Red Bull, and possibly Ferrari too, start to fight back. That's the challenge for the chasing pack, should they choose to accept it.

The long fast corners that punctuate this three mile Istanbul circuit will suit the Red Bull car down to the ground. Ferrari will be able to use their KERS to great effect at the start of the long back straight and up the hill out of turn two. However, in the final sector slow corners that end the lap, the Brawn car should assert its superiority. So far they have been the one team that have managed to maximize their performance consistently throughout a race weekend, something their nearest challengers can't claim for themselves.

So that's the theory, what about the practice?

This morning Nico Rosberg, a best price [129.00] for the Turkish Grand Prix with Betfair, set the fastest time in the first practice session. It's the 10th time this season the Williams driver has been quickest in practice but somehow I can't see him replicating that position come Sunday when it matters the most. Neither team nor driver are in a position to win and Rosberg himself needs surely to start producing the goods if his wish to join a more competitive team in the future is to come true.

Lewis Hamilton was on the pace early on. Once again driving well in a difficult car that showed how just how tricky it was to handle when the back end stepped away from the defending champion in the second session as he exited turn one. Hamilton soon found himself spinning across the track, blameless, but suddenly wary of his cars faults. Hamilton can be backed at [14.0] for the race, once again not my preferred option.

Meanwhile, Jarno Trulli, after what was described by his team boss John Howett as an unacceptable performance for Toyota in Monaco, finds himself in a more competitive position. Trulli is the master of the one flying lap, giving him the edge in qualifying but has struggled in comparison to his team mate Timo Glock in races this season. Therefore, the Italian is more easily backable at [33.0] for pole than he is at [54.0] for the race, although the price of [2.34] for Trulli to finish in the points on Sunday could well be worth a look.

Felipe Massa, winner and pole sitter here in Turkey for the last three years, was brimming with confidence when speaking to the media yesterday as you would expect. He did stress though that he thought a fourth win in four years was going to be very hard indeed. But not impossible and it wouldn't surprise me to see the Brazilian make the podium at least this weekend, giving further indication of the development of that Ferrari car from Australia onwards. Whether he's worth risking at [2.38] in the podium market is up to you but he does go very well here - better than any other driver on the grid.

Brawn spent much of Friday concentrating on their long fuel runs. Typical of their strategy for the practice sessions so far this season. Expect them to show their hand toward the end of qualifying, certainly Jenson Button has made a habit of saving his best lap of the weekend for the last. He has so much confidence in his team at present that he can afford to do that without any hint of panic and will be expecting to be present at the sharp end come Saturday afternoon.

However, for me the team to watch this weekend will be Red Bull. Despite the slight setback of a driveshaft problem for Sebastian Vettel which cost him a lot of running on Friday afternoon, the new diffuser and various upgrades that accompany it, will give them extra pace, pace that might just leapfrog them ahead of Brawn.

Vettel at [6.2] seems like excellent value for the win as well, but although he's got the nod over his team mate Mark Webber in qualifying this year, Webber has gone on to beat him in the race on five occasions out of six. I spoke to Webber during first practice and found him calm, unconcerned about the other nine teams and concentrating on his own game this weekend. For a man who has had wretched luck in the past when in a position to win , could this weekend be the one he's been waiting for?

Betfair offer [18.5] for his dream to come true - maybe this is the race that won't get away.

5 June 2009 /

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