Friday, June 5, 2009

Turkish Grand Prix: Safe money is on another victory for Jenson Button

Of course, everyone talks about Turn Eight, which is infamous for being such a tough workout on the neck and body, but the track is more than just that. There is a nice blend of slow and fast corners, which means it is important to have the Full Monty: aero grip, mechanical grip and straight up speed.

The more competitive cars will be able to put less downforce on the car and still be able to take Turn Eight flat out. Then they will have the benefit of superior end-of-straight speed.

Personally, and despite Jenson Button's subdued form in practice on Friday, I can't see beyond the Brawns again for this one. Red Bull and Ferrari will push them close, but I think Jenson or Rubens Barrichello will prevail in the end.

Red Bull are still coming to terms with their new diffuser and just haven't quite been on the Brawn's pace since Bahrain, while Ferrari have closed the gap in terms of speed but strategically they have been all at sea this season. Their lack of reliability is also worrying. Ferrari do have the benefit of their KERS energy recovery system, which will be a big help here as the extra horsepower will come in handy, particularly on the drag up the hill, but I don't think that will be enough.

McLaren are also KERS-equipped and you do wonder when they are going to make their leap forward, but even a podium would be a massive achievement for Lewis Hamilton.

The safe money is Brawn but, if Jenson does prevail, let's have no talk of boring Schumacher-esque seasons. I have to take issue with Fernando Alonso's comments earlier this week, when the Renault driver said the title race was becoming a drag – I'm sure if he was in Jenson's position he would have the biggest smile in the world. It's up to everyone else to close the gap and knock Brawn off their perch. I just don't see anyone doing it yet.

Once again qualifying will be a fascinating spectacle on Saturday. It's not quite as important as it was in Monaco, where overtaking is well nigh impossible, but it sets the tone for the whole weekend. Jenson has made a habit of pulling stunning laps out of the bag when he needs to and you can't help but be impressed.

But even if he isn't starting from pole, there are plenty of overtaking opportunities on this circuit and I feel we're in for some good racing.

Mark Blundell for Arbuthnot Latham Private Bank



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