Ferrari's Felipe Massa, bottom, drives his car ahead Red Bull's Sebastian Vettel, top, during the Spanish Formula One Grand Prix at the Catalunya racetrack in Montmelo, near Barcelona, Spain, on May 10. Massa and Vettel will be favourites in Monaco this weekend. (Daniel Leiva/Associated Press)
Monaco is the race that truly defines Formula One. It is as enigmatic as the series itself.
The venue is totally unsuited to the cars, yet is one of the best races of the season. While F1 is a celebration of outright speed, Monaco is one of the slowest, narrowest tracks on the circuit. It's a track that doesn't encourage passing, yet is one of the toughest on the drivers. Racers are asked to be absolutely perfect lap after lap or end up in the pits minus some key part of the car.
Many claim, due to the track's width, all you have to do is start on the first row to win. They are wrong.
In the past 10 starts, the pole sitter has won only four times. So while qualifying is always important, history suggests this is a race where anything can happen.
Monaco will reward those cars with superior mechanical grip and balance, but the driver's ability is perhaps the biggest factor in scoring a victory. Track conditions constantly change throughout the weekend and during the race, so the driver has to be active in getting the maximum performance out of the car.
Without further adieu, some predictions for this weekend's race:
McLaren: This team has accumulated an incredible 15 wins at this storied circuit, so clearly they know how to win here. Lewis Hamilton is always quick, but can be a bit too brave on a tight circuit. I like the driver, the car does not have the grip and balance of some of the better teams. Give Hamilton a top 5, if he can keep it on the track.
Ferrari: The new car shows promise. It handled much better and was quicker in the last race. As far as pure mechanical grip, I am not sure they know enough about the car yet. This track does not suit Kimi Raikkonen, but I think Felipe Massa may well be in a fight with Hamilton for a top 5. If I had to pick a surprise winner, Massa would be it.
Renault: Give Fernando Alonso credit for doing the most with the least this season. The car is getting better, but not close to the top few teams. You hate to hear your team manager give the title to another team after five races, but that is what Flavio Briatore has said. I think the car will be slower than it was in Spain, so hope for a top eight for Alonso.
BMW: A few weeks ago I was calling for this team to win. How the mighty have fallen. The team seems a bit out of sorts. The car has shown flashes of speed, but seems to be struggling to finish well. I expect the car to have a strong qualifying, but will struggle to make the top 10. Nick Heidfeld seems to be the best BMW driver and will have his hands full trying to capture a point.
Toyota: This is a team that is surely scratching its collective head. The car has shown well, at times, but struggles to stay on the track and out of accidents. This is not a track well suited to drivers who have hit a lot of things so far this season. They will be fighting with Renault and BMW for whatever points are left in sixth to eighth.
Williams: Based on Nico Rosberg's ability to qualify near the front almost every weekend, he may have a shot. The car seems good and he is a capable driver. He will likely start up front so he should get some points. I think he will finish fourth, a welcome result for Williams, whose sponsors will be out in force.
Red Bull: It's clear they will be in the hunt with Brawn GP for the championship. The fact that team manager Christian Horner has identified Sebastian Vettel as the number one driver should make them even stronger. This race will be between Jenson Button and Vettel. Vettel is a talented driver; hopefully his youthful enthusiasm doesn't hurt him on this very precise track. I will give him second place.
Toro Rosso: All the raw ingredients are here. Great chassis and good Ferrari power, but they have struggled in qualifying. It means they will likely start from well back on the grid, which is not optimal in Monaco. No points here, it would be great to see them up front and win, but that doesn't appear likely.
Brawn GP: Renault boss Flavio Briatore has given these guys the championship, who am I to argue? They are definitely the class of the field right now. Button is motivated and on top of his game, plus he has a huge psychological advantage. The question is how they will handle two drivers who both want to be number one. If it's Button and Rubens Barrichello battling for the lead, we'll get to see how clever team owner Ross Brawn really is.
Force India: This will be another challenging weekend for this team. They are getting better, but still far away from the guys who will be up front. We will see plenty of them, as the leaders will need to get around them during the race.
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