We have seen Ferrari, Renault, Red Bull, Scuderia Toro Rosso, Toyota and BMW-Sauber all claim they will withdraw from Formula One in 2010, and they all say they are serious about it too.
So, which team(s) are actually serious about leaving Formula One? Let's have a look at a team-by-team basis.
Ferrari
The oldest team on the grid, as well as the most prestigious and successful in F1 history, and apparently the most serious about leaving the sport, but why? Well, Ferrari do not the idea of two regulations in one championship, and the heavy spending restrictions imposed under the £40 million budget cap.
Ferrari say they are evaluating the possibilities of moving to another form of racing, so what are there options?
NASCAR
Toyota are in NASCAR and doing well I believe, so we could see a move the States for the Italian marque. But, there is a problem, Ferrari do not produce a car like Toyota's Camry which their NASCAR bomber is based upon, and are unlikely to produce a car like it.
IndyCar
They have threatened it once before, in the late 1980's, and even had an IndyCarready to go, but with the Honda engine in use, Ferrari are unlikely to have a team called Ferrari-Honda. Another no-go area.
LeMans Series
The obvious option, the technology used in the prototype cars is far more relevant to road cars than anything used in Formula One. A classic example is the tech used to created the Audi R10 and R15 TDI cars, which was then used to make the Audi R8 V12TDI in 2008.
Ferrari could use the prototypes to develop supercar-relevant technology, and subsequently make their road cars even better, as if that is even possible.
Result: I do not think Ferrari will give up F1, they need it more than F1 needs them because the same was said when Lotus left. Not the same history, I know, but anyone who is not a Tifosi will see my point.
Should Ferrari do the unthinkable and actually leave F1, then we could see them contesting the 2010 LeMans 24 hour race.
Renault
Renault definitely have the most to lose by leaving, as they rely on their RenaultSportdepartment of the company to produce cars like the Megane R26. The Megane is widely regarded as the best hot-hatchback on sale right now, but the F1 team were a contributing factor to it's success as they formed the basis if the marketing for the car.
Should Renault leave, they will have no basis for their hot cars, and lose a large amount of their income. Renault would save the amount they would lose and more by leaving the sport, but would their reputation ever fully recover?
Red Bull/Toro Rosso
I see very little chance of Red Bull leaving F1, yes they are a huge brand without F1, but they have for of the hottest drivers on the grid right now, so they stand to lose far too much from leaving us. Not a hope in hell of Red Bull leaving.
BMW-Sauber
BMW are such a gigantic company even without F1 that they would save money by leaving the sport, but they are determined to win at least one championship, so until that is done at the very least, I do not see them leaving.
Mario Theissen has said before that the BMW board will class their involvement in F1 as a failure without the ultimate prize. Not going anywhere, for now at least.
Toyota
Probably going to leave in 2010, if they do not win this season. They have to be frustrated that they have not won a race since their debut in 2002, and the company can save money without the expenditure of F1.
I see them leaving in 2010, no doubt, but only if they do not win this season.
So there we have it, I believe that Renault and Toyota will be leaving our sport, leaving two empty spaces on the grid, so who could fill them?
My next article will look at who could be the new kids on the grid next year, teams and drivers, see you there!
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