Thursday, March 4, 2010

Tesla gets ready as electric cars go mainstream

Aaron Bragman, Global Insight automotive analyst

Pedal to the metal delivers instant and constant torque, thanks to its gear-free electric motor, and the tiny two-seater's ultra-stiff suspension helps it stay glued to the road heading out of town to the shires.

On Buckinghamshire's potholed country lanes it is easy to become wary, however, as the ride becomes uncomfortably bumpy - a hint at a potentially rocky future awaiting the company as it moves forwards.

Production of Tesla's Roadster is set to end late next year as Lotus shuts up shop to retool its factory.

"As a result, we anticipate that we may generate limited, if any, revenue from selling electric vehicles after 2011, until the launch of the planned Model S," Tesla said in January in its IPO filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The Model S is Tesla's planned four seater saloon car, scheduled for launch in 2012. The car will cost less than $50,000 when US tax incentives have been taken into account, or less than half the price of the roadster, as Tesla aims to "bring electric cars into the mainstream, bring them to the larger public", explains Mr Carlutti.

Hence, investors are not buying into a car company that makes a roadster; they will be investing in Tesla in the hope that the roadster's success can be replicated as the company steers towards new model launches that are expected to include a replacement for the roadster in 2013 - expected to be dubbed S1.

Some analysts urge caution.

"Considering that Tesla has very little in the way of automotive engineering personnel or facilities, and given that no vehicle has been mentioned as a platform for the Model S and there is not even a plant constructed to make the vehicle, the likelihood that it will appear in two years is very low," Mr Bragman reasons.

"How Tesla plans to survive an entire year with no sales revenue and by not building any cars between the Roadster and the presumed arrival of the Model S is baffling."

Government loan

The answer seems to have much to do with marketing efforts aimed at keeping the brand alive during this period.

No comments:

Post a Comment